50-State Strategy: The West

The New York Times notes a shift in the Mountain West from red to blue as Democrats make electoral gains in governorships, state legislatures, and Congressional seats.

Despite a Republican edge in registration, Democrats are discovering the Mountain West - and Colorado in particular - to be a new political frontier as the party benefits from a potent mix of changing demographics, anger over the war in Iraq, resentment toward conservative social initiatives and millions of dollars' worth of advocacy advertising.

(snip)

In neighboring states, Democrats are seen as having a good chance of capturing a Senate seat in Montana, are battling in what should be safe Republican House seats in Idaho and Wyoming, and have their eyes on Republican seats in Arizona and New Mexico. The increasingly blue tinge of the formerly red region - some say it gives new meaning to the phrase 'purple mountains' - has the national party seriously considering holding its 2008 presidential convention here at the foot of the Rockies.

The Montana Senate race comes down to the wire -- and Senator Max Baucus is featured in a new ad for Democratic candidate Jon Tester.

Montana Sen. Max Baucus is stumping for fellow Democrat Jon Tester in a new television ad, saying he disagrees with Republican Sen. Conrad Burns on "a lot of things."

"You might have heard those ads from Conrad Burns using my name," Baucus says in the spot, which was to begin airing Tuesday. "Well, let me be clear - I support Jon Tester."

Arizona's Senate race is apparently much closer than observers had expected.

According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents.

And finally, AZ-5's Democratic candidate Harry Mitchell has a new ad on stem cell research.

Comments (2) «

Does anyone know if there are any new recent polls on the Wyoming US house race? I've only seen the 12 Oct. Mason-Dixon and 25 Oct. Aspen polls, but I keep on wondering how Trauner's doing.

(I also wonder why there isn't more attention to either this or, to a lesser extent, the Montana US Senate race...)

1

bulby01 on November 2, 2006 at 04:34 PM

It seems we are doing good in the contested states, It looks like we should win in New Jersey and in Virginia since Allen's goons decided to attack a Virginia citizen. That leaves Tennessee and Missouri. I am hoping we pull both off as victories but we must at least get one.

My main point is that heading into the west the score may be 50-49 either way. One spot that Dems should carry is Montana, but the republicans are pulling no punchs and have evened everything up between Sen. Burns (R) and Tester (D). The Republicans are pushing the theme of Tax Hike Tester at the same time Property Taxes are being sent out. Guess what, they are higher than the last year. Burn's ads are currently winning the battle for him.

We must kick Burns out. He took more Money from Abramhoff than any other Senator, in turn he gave Abramhoff anything he wanted. He is currently ranked 100th on Approval Rating:

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval060817Net.HtM
ranks Burns last - 100th.

He is a rubber stamp for Bush and he is making a comeback. He has had the President and Vice President here and running ads that will hurt Tester. We need to keep him on the defensive.

Tester could very well push us over the top and control the senate or give it back to the Republicans. We need to ensure his victory.

2

TMH on November 2, 2006 at 04:58 PM

« Hide Comments

Comments are now closed for this entry.