Key Point: “Nonprofit founder Angel Ramirez turned in the biggest overperformance by a Democrat in a special election this year with her victory on Tuesday night, winning Iowa’s vacant 78th House District in a 79-21 landslide … Altogether, in 19 special elections, Democrats are running ahead of the presidential margins by an average of 11.6 points.”

The Downballot: Democrats just turned in the biggest overperformance in a special election this year

By David Nir 

• Nonprofit founder Angel Ramirez turned in the biggest overperformance by a Democrat in a special election this year with her victory on Tuesday night, winning Iowa’s vacant 78th House District in a 79-21 landslide.

• Last year, Kamala Harris carried the district, based in the Cedar Rapids area, by an already considerable 66-33 margin, according to calculations from The Downballot. That means Ramirez’s showing represents a 26-point improvement on last year’s presidential results.

• The previous high-water mark was also set by an Iowa Democrat, educator Mike Zimmer, who beat the 2024 numbers by 25 points when he flipped a deep red seat in the state Senate in a massive upset in January. The year’s third-best overperformance also came in Hawkeye State, when Democrat Nannette Griffin exceeded Harris’ margins by 24 points in another ruby-red seat in the House.

• Elsewhere on Tuesday, in neighboring Minnesota, Republican Keri Heitzeman defeated Democrat Denise Slipy to hold the vacant 6th Senate District, winning by a 60-40 margin. That showing also represented a Democratic overperformance, however, since Donald Trump won the district by a 63-37 spread in 2024.

• Altogether, in 19 special elections, Democrats are running ahead of the presidential margins by an average of 11.6 points. Ahead of Trump’s first midterm, Democrats outperformed during the 2017-18 election cycle by 10.6 points in aggregate, according to historical data compiled by The Downballot.