Inflation Expectations Skyrocket as Americans Brace For Higher Costs and a Tanking Job Market
May 9, 2025

In response to inflation expectations skyrocketing under Donald Trump, DNC Chair Ken Martin released the following statement:
“Under Donald Trump, prices are sky-high and Americans’ expectations for their economic future are plummeting. After promising to lower prices on ‘Day One,’ Trump is driving the economy into a ditch so he can give another round of handouts to his billionaire friends on the backs of working families. More Americans are fearing a recession, worrying about their job security, and wondering how they’ll be able to pay the bills — and they know Trump is to blame. ”
Trump’s failing economic agenda is skyrocketing inflation expectations as working families brace for higher prices and a slower job market, with more Americans reporting being financially worse off under Trump.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York: “Median inflation expectations … increased by 0.2 percentage point at the three-year-ahead horizon to 3.2%, the highest reading since July 2022. …
“Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point for the price of gas to 3.5%, 0.8 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 8.7%, 2.4 percentage points for the cost of college to 9.1%, and 1.8 percentage points for rent to 9.0%. …
“Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 0.1 percentage point to 44.1%, the measure’s highest reading since April 2020. …
“The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 49.2%, the lowest reading since March 2021. …
“Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated sharply in April, with the share of households reporting a worse situation rising and the share reporting a better situation declining. Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations deteriorated sharply.”
Bloomberg: “Three-Year Inflation Views at Highest Since 2022 in Fed Survey”
“Americans’ … views on the job market worsened …
“Recession concerns have grown, and most economists expect tariffs to boost prices and weigh on growth. …
“[E]xpected household income growth fell to the lowest since April 2021.”
REMINDER: In 100 days, Trump brought the economy to the “brink of crisis,” as hiring plummets and GDP shrinks.
Wall Street Journal: “U.S. Faces Recession This Year, IIF Says”
CNN: “Trump took the US economy to the brink of a crisis in just 100 days”
“Donald Trump spent his first 100 days back in the Oval Office driving an economy that the world envied to the brink of crisis, risking America’s reputation as a financial safe haven and fostering fear among voters who’ve lost confidence in his leadership. …
“But the president deliberately and singlehandedly adopted policies that are almost certain to spike prices even more; that could lead to shortages; and that have CEOs and small businesses dealing with chaos and the possibility of a recession.”
Bloomberg: “[Q1 GDP was] well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years”
Bureau Of Labor Statistics: “The average jobs added per month across the first three months of Donald Trump’s second term was just 154,667 jobs, 54% lower than the last administration’s monthly average of 336,250 jobs.”
Intuit: “The latest quarterly data from the Small Business Index shows US small business employment fell by 433,500 jobs (-3.53%) in the first quarter of 2025.”
Trump’s approval on the economy is tanking, and a majority of Americans believe the economy is on the wrong track under Trump — including Republicans.
Reuters: “Just 37% of respondents to the six-day poll that concluded on Monday approve of Trump’s handling of the economy”
Axios: “55% of U.S. adults say they are not confident Trump can make good decisions about economic policy”
Joe Weisenthal, Bloomberg: “March saw a big drop in how *Republicans* feel about the state of the US economy”
The Economist/YouGov: “54% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, 55% disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation”
###