“A Serious Trump Recession”: Economists Warn Trump’s Federal Funding Freezes and $100 Billion National Tax Are Threatening the Economy
February 27, 2025
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Donald Trump is steering the American economy into a “deep recession” that will skyrocket inflation and stifle business growth — and economists are sounding the alarm with economic policy uncertainty at higher levels than any time during the Great Recession. After admitting that his $100 billion national tax would cause “pain” for working families, Trump continues to jack up prices and enact dangerous federal funding freezes that are devastating Americans across the country.
Here’s a look at economists’ and businesses’ growing concerns with Trump’s out-of-touch economic agenda:
New York Times: “The United States economy is starting to show signs of strain as President Trump’s abrupt moves to shrink federal spending, lay off government workers and impose tariffs on America’s largest trading partners rattle businesses and reverberate across states and cities.
“Funding freezes and firings of federal workers combined with the prospect of costly trade wars are souring consumer sentiment, raising inflation expectations and stalling business investment plans, according to recent economic surveys.
“Local economies are also bracing for a sudden withdrawal of fiscal support, forcing officials to contemplate tax increases or municipal bond offerings to stabilize their budgets. While Mr. Trump has acknowledged that his policies could bring some initial pain, the early warning signs suggest that his blunt approach could come with more ominous risks to the economy.”
The Telegraph: “Economists are starting to worry about a serious Trump recession”
“Donald Trump’s assault on the US federal government and the world’s interlinked manufacturing system have together reached an economic tipping point.
“‘It seems almost unavoidable that we are headed for a deep, deep recession,’ said Jesse Rothstein, Berkeley professor and former chief economist at the US labour department. …
“Prof Rothstein said monthly non-farm payrolls – the barometer of US economic health watched closely by markets – could turn viciously negative by late spring, contracting at rates surpassed only during the worst months of Covid and the Lehman crisis in 2008. …
“Torsten Slok, of Apollo Global, said layoffs could approach 1m after factoring in the likely chain reaction through contractors. ‘We are starting to worry about the downside risks to the economy and markets,’ he said.”
CNN: “Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market”
“First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose much more than expected last week … a potential worrisome hint that cracks may be forming in America’s long-solid labor market.
“There were an estimated 242,000 jobless claims filed last week, according to seasonally adjusted data released Thursday by the Department of Labor. That’s an increase of 22,000 from the prior week’s tally and a figure that landed well above economists’ expectations for 220,000 claims.”