Economists and Consumers Brace for “A Serious Trump Recession”
March 31, 2025

Donald Trump promised voters an economic boom on Day One, but instead, economists are sounding the alarm on a looming recession and Americans are fed up with Trump’s disastrous handling of the economy. As consumers “call for a lifeline,” Trump’s economy is projected to see “the weakest growth” since the pandemic — and even Republicans are growing concerned about inflation and unemployment thanks to Trump’s $100 billion national tax.
Here’s a look at Americans’ widespread disapproval of Trump’s reckless economic agenda:
Politico: “Republicans scramble to shield their states from Trump’s next wave of tariffs”
“Swaths of Republicans on Capitol Hill are scrambling to shield their states from Donald Trump’s next wave of tariffs, a sign of the private alarm in the president’s party about the impacts of his trade agenda. …
“Trump’s own Agriculture Department inquired about securing exemptions for critical agricultural inputs before the White House rolled out 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico earlier this month, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. …
“Beyond Canada and Mexico, Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon said he’s heard from meat processors and popcorn producers in his state who have lost market access in Europe in the last week amid Trump’s trade tumult.”
CNBC: “Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.
“The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.”
CNN: “Recession odds are rising as Trump’s trade war escalates, Goldman Sachs says”
“The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs.
“The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. …
“‘Higher tariffs are likely to boost consumer crisis,’ Goldman Sachs economists wrote, noting that higher prices will eat into inflation-adjusted income.”
NBC News: “Consumers call for a lifeline as Trump’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’ nears”
“Consumers’ economic pessimism is worsening as inflation stays hot and a series of new reports flash alarms days before the White House expands its trade war. …
“The financial firm ING called the new numbers ‘ugly’ and flagged ongoing stagflation risks, saying ‘we are moving in the wrong direction’ as Trump’s trade war and spending cuts threaten to worsen things. …
“Economic sentiment slid 12% this month in the University of Michigan’s latest survey, also released Friday, and expectations for the future plunged 18%. The researchers described ‘a clear consensus’ in which ‘Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation.’”
Financial Times: “[M]uch of America is looking at April 2 — when Trump will set high new tariff rates on imports from a wide range of allies and adversaries — with trepidation. …
“They have been preceded by a sell-off in US equity markets, a drop in consumer confidence, and alarm bells from pollsters over the president’s handling of the economy.
“‘I think there’s an enormous amount of anxiety,’ said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former White House official under George W Bush and founder of the American Action Forum, a right-leaning economic think-tank in Washington. He said the White House was running ‘a real risk of recession’”
###