Fact Check: Kudlow and Trump’s False Claims About Economic Recovery

Larry Kudlow just claimed that the economy is experiencing a “V-shaped recovery” from the pandemic. In fact, there are signs the economic recovery is slowing, in large part because of Trump’s failed coronavirus response.

FACT: There are many signs the economic recovery is slowing as Trump fails to get the pandemic under control, especially for working Americans.

CBS News: “A growing number of economists are saying that the recent recovery, driven by a reopening of the economy and Washington stimulus, is slowing — and may end as soon as this month.”

New York Times: “America’s economic recovery is in an uneasy pause, with key indicators of hiring, shopping and investment stalling or in retreat in the wake of a resurgence in coronavirus cases across broad sections of the country , and with Congress and President Trump showing no signs of progress on another stimulus deal.”

Washington Post: “The recession is over for the rich, but the working class is far from recovered”

FACT: Data last week showed more than 1 million Americans filed new unemployment claims, even more than the week before.

NBC News: “Around 1.106 million people filed for initial jobless claims last week, pushing the number into seven figures again, after two weeks of declines, according to data from the Department of Labor. The elevated figure calls into question the nature — and length — of the nation’s economic recovery.”

FACT: The economy has regained fewer than half the jobs lost during the pandemic.

Associated Press: “With confirmed viral cases still elevated in much of the nation and businesses under continued pressure, many employers appear reluctant or unable to hire. Even counting the hiring of the past three months, the economy has now recovered only about 42% of the 22 million jobs it lost to the pandemic-induced recession, according to the Labor Department’s jobs report released Friday.”

FACT: The labor market recovery is slowing as layoffs spike and Americans are laid off for a second time.

Reuters: “Other data on Thursday showed a 54% surge in job cuts announced by employers in July. The reports followed on the heels of news this week of a sharp step-down in private payrolls in July and continued declines in employment at manufacturing and services industries.”

FACT: The U.S. economy still has a long way to climb to undo the damage it suffered.

JP Morgan: “However, in economic growth, as in portfolios, a percentage rebound needs to be larger than the percentage decline to fully recover, so a 57% bounce would be required to get back to the peak in real GDP of 4Q19. This is something we do not expect to be achieved until at least 4Q21.”