Key Point: “A half-dozen polls have now tested views of Vance more than once in the last few weeks. In each of them, his already-underwhelming image ratings have deteriorated — sometimes significantly.”

Washington Post Analysis: It’s getting worse for JD Vance

By: Aaron Blake

• Two weeks ago, I noted that the early signs for JD Vance as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential nominee were not encouraging. He was a historically unpopular running mate. The polls seemed to confirm what was already evident: He wasn’t a particularly voter-friendly pick, dating back to an underperforming 2022 Ohio Senate campaign in which every other Republican running for statewide office did better in their races.
  
• The signs since then have only gotten worse.

• A half-dozen polls have now tested views of Vance more than once in the last few weeks. In each of them, his already-underwhelming image ratings have deteriorated — sometimes significantly.

• And crucially, his struggles appear particularly pronounced among educated voters and women. That would suggest that his derisive past comments about childless women are indeed proving to be liabilities.

• But first, the big picture. Vance’s net favorable rating (favorable vs. unfavorable) is now nine points underwater in the FiveThirtyEight average. That’s a marked contrast to other recent running mates, who have generally polled in popular territory.
  
• And notably, three of the repeated polls show about as many people view Vance very unfavorably as have any kind of positive view of him.

• His net favorable ratings have dropped:

• Three points in Reuters-Ipsos polls between July 16 and July 28 (the end dates for the polls).
• Five points in Economist-YouGov polls between July 23 and July 30.
• Eight points in AP-NORC polls between July 15 and July 29.
• Nine points in other YouGov polls (that weren’t sponsored by a media outlet) between July 15 and July 25.
• Nine points in ABC News-Ipsos polls between July 20 and July 27.
• And six points in a new NPR/PBS/Marist College poll, versus its July 22 poll.
  
• Vance’s net favorable rating has declined among women by around 10 points in each of the Marist, Economist-YouGov and other YouGov polls.

• He’s declined among independents by double digits in both the Marist and YouGov polls. (Though he ticked up slightly in the Economist-YouGov poll.)

• He’s declined at least 19 points among Black voters in the Marist, YouGov and Economist-YouGov polls. And he’s also down double digits among voters under 30 in two of those three polls.
  
• In the Marist poll — the most recent and detailed high-quality survey we have — Vance’s net image has declined by 28 points among college-educated voters and 14 points among women who are political independents.