In The Battlegrounds: Dems Walloping GOP On VBM, The Suburban Shift & Trump’s Job Losses

Three new stories highlight three important trends that are contributing to Trump’s headwinds across the battleground states. Read the key takeaways below:

The Columbus Dispatch highlights how suburban women continue to be repulsed by Trump’s failed coronavirus response and his reaction to George Floyd’s death. 

The Columbus Dispatch: Battle For The Burbs: Could Coronavirus Response Affect Women’s Votes?

By Anna Staver

  • “‘I want experienced leaders who are willing to learn and listen to experts and make the best decisions possible,’ Bosner said. She sees those traits in Ohio’s Republican governor, but she doesn’t see them represented the way she’d like in Ohio’s Republican-controlled Statehouse and the White House.

  • “Words used by national Republicans like President Donald Trump and local GOP members including Sen. Andrew Brenner, who shared a post comparing Acton — who is Jewish — to the Nazis, strike her as antithetical to the values she’s trying to instill in her son: being kind to others and treating people with respect. She’s not alone.”

  • “Bosner is emblematic of the shift happening in suburbs across Ohio and the nation. Married, college-educated women who traditionally made up the backbone of the GOP suburban base have left the party.”

Bloomberg News highlights how the cratering economy and skyrocketing unemployment are continuing to hurt Trump’s standing in key battleground states.

Bloomberg News: Trump Faces Drag of Job Losses Topping 16% in Vital 2020 States.

By Michael Sasso and Alexandre Tanzi

  • “Heavy job losses are expected to persist through 2020 and into next year in some of America’s biggest swing states, providing a crucial challenge for President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign.”

  • “States that depend on tourism and manufacturing are suffering some of the worst employment declines since the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in March — among them battleground states including Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Job losses of 16% or more are expected to linger at least into the first quarter of 2021, with travel-dependent Nevada leading the nation with a 21% drop […] Florida, perhaps the most crucial swing state, ranks fourth-worst in the study, with employment projected down 16.8%.”

  • “The data suggest Trump faces a major hurdle in pushing an economic message amid the highest unemployment rates in decades. ‘Obviously, it’s going to fuel Democrats’ campaign against him on the basis of the economy,’ said Susan MacManus, a former professor of political science at the University of South Florida in Tampa. ‘Any data that’s seen as negative toward the president will be quickly used by Florida Democrats in ads against him.’”

The New York Times highlights how Trump’s baseless fearmongering over vote-by-mail could ultimately hurt his own chances in November:

The New York Times: Republicans Fear Trump’s Criticism of Mail-In Ballots Will Hurt Them.

By Trip Gabriel

  • “Republican officials and strategists warned that if a wide partisan gap over mail voting continues in November, Republicans could be at a disadvantage, an unintended repercussion of the president’s fear-mongering about mail ballots that could hurt his party’s chances, including his own. In Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana and New Mexico, all states voting on Tuesday that broadly extended the option to vote by mail this year, a higher share of Democrats than Republicans have embraced mail-in ballots.”

  • “‘If the Republicans aren’t playing the same game, if we’re saying we don’t believe in mail-in voting and are not going to advocate it,’ said Lee Snover, the Republican chair of Northampton County in Pennsylvania, ‘we could be way behind.’”

  • “Seventy percent of the 1.5 million requests for mail ballots in Pennsylvania came from Democrats […] In New Mexico, 71 percent of mail ballots returned as of Monday were from Democrats, according to the secretary of state. In Iowa, Democrats requested 56 percent of mail ballots, in a state where Democrats make up 50 percent of the voters registered by party. In Indiana, which loosened its rules to offer no-excuse voting by mail, 350,000 Democrats requested mail ballots, compared with 268,000 Republicans, according to the secretary of state.”