NEW: Consumers, Businesses, and Economists Are Sounding Alarm About Trump’s Price Hikes

In the latest sign that Donald Trump’s disastrous plans could tank the economic progress under the Biden-Harris administration, consumers, businesses, and economists are now sounding the alarm on Trump’s extreme and unpopular Project 2025 agenda to turbocharge inflation and hike prices. Across the board, Americans oppose Trump and his billionaire Cabinet’s “$100 billion national tax” that would hurt working families and drastically raise prices on energy, cars, and groceries. Americans deserve a president focused on lowering costs – not raising them.

New polling shows that Americans oppose Donald Trump’s expensive and out-of-touch Project 2025 agenda, which they agree would raise prices on basic items.  

Navigator: “A plurality of Americans view tariffs unfavorably and oppose Trump’s tariff plan, though at least one in five Americans are uncertain on each metric.

“More than three in five say new tariffs would increase the costs of things that they buy. A greater share also say new tariffs will hurt U.S. consumers more than foreign countries. 

“The top concerns about higher tariffs are that they could increase inflation and raise prices and that they are a new tax that burdens working- and middle-class families.

As a result of Trump’s plans to hike prices, households and small businesses are now rushing to make their purchases before Trump raises costs.  

Washington Post: “Americans are scrambling to stock up on cars, appliances and other big-ticket imports in anticipation of new Trump administration tariffs — a spending spree that could reignite the very inflation buyers are hoping to avoid.

“President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to enact widespread tariffs as soon as he takes office in January, a move that economists say could lift prices for just about every type of import, including food, cars, computers and gas. […]

“New data this week showed that Americans spent $3.6 billion more on vehicles and auto parts in November than they did the month before — a notable bump in an otherwise lackluster retail sales reading. […]

“It isn’t just consumers stocking up. Major retailers are, too. Costco is looking to ‘pull forward inventory buying’ to get ahead of tariffs, chief financial officer Gary Millerchip told investors last week.

“Small business owners say they’re struggling to keep up. Many lack the extra cash they need to buy — and store — extra products, putting them at a disadvantage compared with larger retailers.

“‘I started thinking about things differently once I realized tariffs are coming into play,’ said Scalise, 36, who works in marketing. ‘Literally the morning after the election, my first thought was: I’ve got to buy a refrigerator; I can’t wait until next year.’”

Trump’s toxic agenda is also “spooking” economists, raising fears of inflation and price hikes. 

Wall Street Journal: “Trump Isn’t President Yet. He’s Already Spooking the Fed.” 

Besides tariffs, tax cuts and curbs on immigration are likely on the agenda once Trump takes office. The degree and timing of all three are very much in question, but there is almost certain to be some of each. They would also to some extent be at cross-purposes with each other, some being stimulative while others would tend to hold back growth. But all three would likely have the impact of pushing prices higher. […]

“During his press conference, Powell was asked to what degree the Fed is expecting ‘inflationary fiscal policy next year.’ In a cautiously worded response, he acknowledged that ‘some people did take a very preliminary step and start to incorporate, you know, highly conditional estimates of economic effects of policies.’ […]

“Trump may not be fond of that metaphor to describe the coming start of his presidency, but it is apt. The degree of uncertainty around what exactly he will do upon taking office is very high, especially on tariffs. On Wednesday that reality began to sink in with investors.”

REMINDER: Donald Trump’s $100 billion national tax would cost Americans an extra $1,000 a year and raise costs drastically on energy, cars, and groceries. 

Ernie Tedeschi, The Budget Lab: “A broad 25% tariff on all goods imports from Canada and Mexico would, before substitution & other 2nd stage effects, put upward pressure on the level of consumer prices of +0.6%. That’s the equivalent of an average loss in after-tax income of about $980 per household in 2023.”

Ernie Tedeschi, The Budget Lab: “Adding in an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods imports, the price level pressure rises to 0.75%, which is the equivalent of -$1,180 per household in average 2023 after-tax income.”

Bloomberg: “A 25% tariff applied to all imports from Canada would put pressure on energy costs. Oil, gas and other energy products are Canada’s largest export to its southern neighbor; it’s by far the largest external supplier of crude to the US.” 

Wall Street Journal: “A 25% Trump tariff on Canadian oil and gas could lead to lower production, in turn pushing up U.S. energy prices, warned an industry group. Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, sends almost all of its exports to the U.S. The prospect of tariffs has alarmed Canadian oil companies. […]

“One industry representative said the tariff would push up car prices, an outcome Trump would likely want to avoid.”

Kyle Meng, Associate Professor of Economics at UCSB: “Lots of takes on new Trump tariffs. Here’s a quick general equilibrium analysis. […] Model solves for new U.S. consumer prices for all products. Here are products with US price increases >2%, up to 13%. Lots of industrial inputs & food products, unsurprisingly given CAN/MEX/PRC imports.”

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