As Donald Trump prepares to give his State of the Union address this evening, the coalition that delivered him the presidency has fallen apart. His approval ratings across the board have dropped since he took office, and Republicans have lost election after election in 2025 and 2026. 

Trump’s broken promises to voters — including his failure to improve the economy for everyday Americans while giving kickbacks to the ultra-rich, his refusal to release the Epstein files or pursue justice for Jeffrey Epstein’s victims, and his unhinged ICE campaign that has caused violence and chaos instead of targeting the “worst of the worst” — have sent his 2024 voters running in the other direction.  

Trump’s Approval Rating 

• An AP-NORC poll shows Trump at only 36% approval overall, matching his lowest mark of his second term. A whopping 59% disapprove of his handling of the economy — the highest of either term — and Trump remains 29 points underwater on his handling of the cost of living
• Trump’s average net approval is at -14.9%, matching the lowest level of this term. Trump’s average net approval on the issues of the economy (-16), trade (-19) and inflation (-26) remain deeply underwater, and net approval on immigration down to -12, a drop of 9 points from three months ago, issues that were once considered his strongest. 
• Democrats have a 4.8-point average lead on the 2026 congressional generic ballot, according to the RealClearPolitics average, near their largest of the cycle. Democrats’ 8-point lead in a recent Economist/YouGov poll matches their best figure since November.

Black Voters

• Trump’s approval rating among Black Americans has dropped from 24% during his first three months in office to 13% in polls this fall, and over 70% disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 

Latino Voters

• Among Hispanic voters, his approval ratings have fallen from 40% to 34%. About one-fifth of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 said they disapproved of his job performance. In one poll, the share of Latino voters who said Trump’s economic policies were worsening conditions was four times higher than those who said he was improving them, and nearly 80% said they believed his overall policies are hurting Latinos. 

Young Voters

• Trump’s support among young voters dropped to its lowest level ever recorded, with approval among voters aged 18 to 29 at 25%, and 70% disapproving, a 13 point drop from just one week earlier, according to an Economist/YouGov poll.
• In particular, Trump is losing support with young men who helped fuel his return to office. His job approval is 34 points underwater among young men, with 32% approving and 66% disapproving of his performance in office. A 61% supermajority of young men say Trump is not fulfilling his campaign promise to put America first, including 25% of young Republican men and 64% of Independents. Young men are most alarmed by Trump’s $1 trillion cut to health care (66% very concerned), followed by his opposition to fully releasing the Epstein files (63%), and his expansion of immigration raids to target anyone who looks or sounds foreign (60%). 58% of young men believe that Trump has negatively impacted their finances, while just 23% say that he has had a positive impact.